ELECTRIC CAR. IS IT (REALLY) TIME FOR A CHANGE?

By José Elías Navarro – President of Audax Renovables SA

Electric cars increasingly a reality. If a decade ago (or maybe even just five years) this statement sounded like a common hope for low-carbon mobility - especially in urban centers - today the situation has changed quite a bit. Technological innovations that have allowed significant improvements in performance and the urgency to find less polluting solutions have led car manufacturers to "believe" in electric, investing resources in the production and marketing of new models. In a certain sense, increasingly restrictive and widespread supranational and local policies on the reduction of polluting emissions - from the ban on diesel engines to ordinances such as traffic blocks or alternate license plates - have generated in consumer-motorists the need for valid (and immediate) alternatives.

The numbers illustrate this evolution well. In 2020, 176 new electric car models will be marketed, in 2021 214. And we will reach 333 models in 2025, if the plans of the car manufacturers do not change. The production of electric vehicles in Europe is expected to multiply sixfold between 2019 and 2025, reaching more than 4 million cars and vans, or more than a fifth of the EU's car production volume.

According to the independent pan-European association European Federation for Transport and Environment, in the report published at the end of July this year [ +info ]. These data consider the three main types of electric vehicles, namely the so-called BEVs (Battery Electric Vehicle), PHEV (Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle) and FCEV (Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle). But which type do we focus on most decisively?

The largest number of models will be PHEVs, i.e. hybrid cars (electric and internal combustion) that can be charged from the grid using a cable or wireless system. In 2021, drivers will be able to choose from 118 different PHEV models; in 2018, the choice was limited to 60. The consequence? Within 6 years, the 22% of the vehicles produced could be equipped with a charging connector: which would allow manufacturers to easily reach the CO2 emissions target set by the European Union at 95 g / km (precisely by 2025).

If we consider “pure electric” cars, the numbers drop, but without collapses: in three years, in 2022, there will be more than one hundred BEV models while in 2025 they will reach 172. As for the new models launched on the market every twelve months, the progression will be: 19 new BEVs this year, 33 in 2020, 22 in 2021, 30 in 2022 and 33 in 2023.

Chart 1. Number of electric car models available on the European market (2012-2025)

(source: European Federation for Transport and Environment)

On the other hand, the FCEV market remains very marginal, that is, those vehicles whose traditional engine is replaced with a fuel cell powered by hydrogen or other fuels.

Let's look at Italy. Despite there being just over 13 thousand electric cars in circulation, the market has begun to show encouraging signs with registrations doubling – or almost – year after year. According to the eMobility Report of the Energy & Strategy Group of the Milan Polytechnic, in 2017, almost 5 thousand electric cars were sold in Italy, +100% compared to the previous year. Of these, about 2 thousand are of the “full electric” type, while the rest are of the “plug in” type. The data for 2018 also confirm the more than positive trend, with sales doubling [ +info ].

Interesting growth rates are also being recorded in Spain, but – to date – the target of 5 million electric vehicles in circulation envisaged in the National Integrated Plan for Energy and Climate seems very far away.

Undoubtedly, the continuous technical progress and technological innovations make the electric an increasingly credible competitor of the internal combustion engine. However, some important issues still need to find effective and efficient answers and solutions [ +info ].

1. Let's start with batteries. Although they perform much better than in the past - especially lithium-ion and sodium-nickel chloride - they still need to improve in weight, size and performance/cost ratio.
2. The issue of charging speed is linked to batteries. Today, times are affected by the way in which you "refuel". According to calculations by the European Environment Agency, to travel 100 km it takes only 10 minutes from a fast charging point (120 kW, direct current). But if the operation is carried out in your garage, using a mains socket it takes up to 8 hours (3.3 kW, alternating current, single phase).
3. A third element is the so-called range anxiety, or "range anxiety" that is generated in the driver, worried about not having enough battery to reach his destination. A fear that only investments in charging infrastructure can dispel. Today in Italy there are over 5 thousand charging points for electric vehicles [ +info ]. A number similar to that recorded in Spain.
4. Lastly, there is the price. Even today, electric cars cost more than traditional internal combustion cars.

Graph 2. Charging times depending on the mode

(Source: European Environment Agency)

The turning point may not be around the corner, but it is closer than it seemed just a few years ago. After all, at the beginning of the engine era, electric vehicles were on equal terms with the four-stroke engine of the German Nikolaus August Otto. At least until gasoline (and the entire system of extraction, refining and distribution) took over, relegating electric to a corner. Today, more than 150 years later, has the time perhaps come to reverse the roles?